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Report says generative AI will have biggest impact in banking and tech

Report says generative AI will have biggest impact in banking and tech

A new generation of artificial intelligence is set to overturn old assumptions about technology.

For years, people working in warehouses or fast food restaurants worried that automation could eliminate their jobs. But new research shows that generic AI – the kind used in chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT – will have the biggest impact on white-collar workers with high-wage jobs in industries like banking and tech.

A report Published on Thursday by Burning Glass Institutea non-profit research center, and SHRMFormerly the Society for Human Resource Management, it stops short of saying that technology will eliminate large numbers of jobs. But it makes clear that workers need to better prepare for a future in which AI could play a key role in many workplaces that have until now been largely untouched by technological disruption.

For those in tech, this means they may be building their own AI replacements.

“There's no doubt that the workers who will be most impacted are people with college degrees, and these are the people who always thought they were safe,” said Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute.

For hundreds of corporations, the researchers estimated that part of payroll spending goes to workers employed in the 200 occupations most affected by generative AI, many of those jobs filled by affluent college graduates, including business analysts, marketing managers, software developers. Are organized. , Database Administrators, Project Managers and Lawyers.

Some of the companies in the finance sector, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, have the highest percentage of their payrolls that are likely to be disrupted by generative AI, with tech giants like Google, Microsoft and Meta not far behind.

Getting AI to perform human tasks could result in huge savings for those companies. Research estimates that banks and some tech companies spend 60 to 80 percent or more of their salaries on workers in occupations most impacted by new technology.

The report found that the retail, restaurant and transportation industries are the least likely to be impacted by generic AI. Companies like Walmart, McDonald's and Delta Air Lines employ workers mostly without college degrees who perform roles such as helping customers, stocking shelves, cooking and handling goods. They spend less than 20 percent of their salaries on employees in the businesses most affected by generative AI.

The report does not predict potential job losses related to generative AI, saying it will depend on employers, and whether they want to bank the savings from AI automation or use that money for investment and growth. Want to do, want to add more workers. Most experts expect AI to mostly replace rather than eliminate jobs over the next few years – although this could change if the technology improves rapidly.

Johnny C. Taylor Jr., chief executive officer of SHRM, said the report highlights the need for increased training to prepare workers to adapt to rapidly evolving technology.

“Corporations and governments will have to invest seriously to get ahead of this,” he said.

The report is the latest entry in a growing field of work trying to predict the impact of generic AI on the economy and the workplace. Other studies estimate increased economic growth and productivity, automated activities that are equivalent to millions of jobs, and time savings of up to 50 percent for routine office and coding tasks.

In its research, the Burning Glass Institute started with a widely cited estimate of generic AI exposure by business. academic paper Which was published last year. It then added its own data sets for company-by-company calculations – including job listings, payroll information, government statistics and corporate disclosures. The SHRM report includes rankings of selected companies. The Burning Glass Institute estimated the percentage of payroll expenses by company for The New York Times.

Manav Raj, co-author of the academic paper that the Burning Glass Institute relied on, said the new research appears to be a credible attempt to parse company-level data. But at this stage, he said, all studies are educated guesses.

“Many of the papers out there generally conclude that this wave of AI has the potential to have a huge impact,” said Mr. Raj, an assistant professor of management at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “But it will take some time to figure out what that effect actually looks like.”

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/02/01/multimedia/01AI-impact-02-jckf/01AI-impact-02-jckf-facebookJumbo.jpg

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